November is an important month for many e-commerce businesses, and our platform is built to support that. Here are six features built into our platform that make it work harder, better, faster, and stronger.
Imagine the Cyber Monday after Black Friday. The weekend numbers are lower than expected, someone is already questioning whether to cut the budget, and three of your bestsellers sold out on Saturday afternoon.
Each of these problems is addressed by a feature in our platform. Clicks cost more in November, demand changes quickly, and the numbers you see are less complete than usual, so any small mistake in budget management can become costly. Here’s how our platform manages your budget during November, and where we set clear boundaries.
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1. How your budget is paced
Every night, our algorithms calculate how much each campaign should spend on every remaining day of the month. They send only today’s amounts to Google, Meta, and Bing. Then, after midnight, they collect what was actually sold and recalculate everything.
On November 2, that’s a 29-day plan. On the Saturday after Black Friday, it’s a three-day plan.
Planning for the whole month lets our algorithms save money on days with lower returns and spend more on days with higher returns, all while staying within your monthly budget. Acting only on today means tomorrow’s results can still influence decisions.
And that’s how it should be.
We run statistical models, not language models, for calculations
Statistical models, not language models, handle all calculations. Language models are good with words, but budget decisions need consistency, clear reasoning, and a way to measure confidence. We’ve also explained why language models aren’t right for budget management.
What our algorithms understand about your ads
- Diminishing returns
The first part of a campaign’s budget buys far more than the last. That’s how our algorithms spot a saturated brand campaign and move the money to where there’s still room to grow. - Delayed effect. A Meta ad seen on Tuesday can turn into a purchase on Saturday. Judge it on same-day results, and you’ll cut it too early.
- Campaigns lifting each other. Meta creates the audiences that Google later reaches. Cut one, and part of the other goes with it.
- Timing. Weekdays, paydays, and Black Friday affect both how much you sell and how well each campaign turns spend into sales.
None of these is known exactly, so our algorithms keep track of how certain they are and weigh the risk before a single euro is reallocated.
Why the decision sits above Google, Meta, and Bing
Google, Meta, and Bing each optimize inside their own universe, and none of them will ever build the tool that moves your money outside of their auction.
2. Your goal decides what “best” means
You set the goal, the budget, and the limits in our platform. Our algorithms then manage everything within those boundaries. Google, Meta, and Bing still set the individual bids, but we decide where the money is best spent.
The budget is a ceiling. The target is a condition.
If you run with a maximum budget and a ROAS target, our algorithms treat them very differently. The budget is a ceiling. The target is a condition: spend as much as possible, as long as the calculated result still meets it. If the next euro pulls ROAS below target, it stays unspent, even with budget left.
The average and the last euro
This part is easy to overlook. A ROAS target is an average. As you scale up, the average drops slowly, but the return on the last euro drops quickly. A campaign might show a good average, even if the last thousand euros bring in much less than your target.
Our algorithms look at the next euro, not the average.
A tip for Black Month
If your order values change, using conversion value as your goal is usually more accurate than using conversion count. Discounts affect what each order is worth, and a count-based goal can’t account for that.
3. Black Friday isn’t just another Friday
How the big days are modeled
Black Friday, which now often starts with Black Month in mid-October, has a special place in our algorithms, as do Cyber Monday and paydays. Day-of-month patterns are learned from a full year, so last November helps shape this one. Weekday patterns are based on recent months, so a Wednesday from last spring doesn’t affect this year.
A budget curve that follows last year’s searches
Our November budget curve follows last year’s search volume curve, moved to this year’s calendar so weekdays, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday line up. That’s what the pacing starts from.
Each day’s share is sent as a daily budget. That day’s demand and volume then decide how much of it is actually spent, so it can end up a little more or a little less. Every day, our algorithms add up what has been spent so far and calculate a new curve for the remaining days. If a day spends less than planned, the days ahead get a bit more, and the other way around.
We do this so your budget can follow the demand that builds through November and peaks around Black Friday, while your monthly budget still lands where it should.
“We don’t have an offer. Do we really need to follow the curve?”
Yes. Even without an offer, you need to follow search volume, because your customers search more during this period anyway.
Following the curve still doesn’t mean going all in on the biggest day.
“Shouldn’t we just max out the budget on Black Friday?”
Not necessarily.
Demand is high, but so is competition. Everyone increases their efforts at the same time, clicks become more expensive, and many shoppers would have bought from you anyway. Sometimes, the best strategy on the biggest day is to hold back a bit and spend more on the days around it.
Gradual changes, not big jumps
When our algorithms shift money, they do it gradually. On Meta, budget changes are usually limited to about 18% per day, since bigger changes reset Meta’s learning and can hurt performance. Meta itself can also spend up to 75% over the daily budget on a single day, as long as the weekly total stays within budget, and our algorithms take that into account when they set the next day’s budget. If you see a high spend on one day, it’s usually Meta, not an error.
4. Paying for sales that would have happened anyway
If you only read one section of this post, make it this one.
The uncapped budget trap
The common setup is an uncapped budget with a ROAS target, where Google or Meta decides how much to spend. They spend most when demand is highest, which is exactly when many buyers would have purchased anyway. The ROAS looks great. The ads are just standing next to sales they didn’t create.
It’s like paying a taxi to take you somewhere you’re already standing.
How our platform avoids it
- Our algorithms estimate your baseline, the sales you’d get with no ads at all, and only count what the ads add on top.
- We set and cap the budgets, so spending doesn’t just follow demand.
- Retargeting on Meta never gets more than 60% of the budget. More retargeting conversions don’t mean more sales in total.
- With Search Console connected, our algorithms can pause paid keywords where you already rank strongly organically, so you’re not paying for clicks you’d get anyway.
- Everything is judged on total sales, not on what Google, Meta, or Bing takes credit for.
Where the waste hides
When demand is highest, wasted spend is hardest to spot. If you want to learn more, read Are you paying for clicks you already own? and see how L’Oréal connected paid and organic search.
5. Why your Black Friday numbers look worse on Monday
Back to that Monday morning.
Conversions arrive late
Google, Meta, and Bing keep crediting conversions to a day for a while after it ends. Someone clicks on Friday, buys on Sunday, and the sale shows up on Friday’s row later. So the most recent days always look weaker than they’ll end up.
If the budget reacted to that, it would take money away from campaigns that are actually performing well, right after the busiest weekend of the year.
How our algorithms correct for it
Every night, our algorithms save the reports they download and track how many conversions usually arrive after one, two, or three days. The most recent days are then adjusted upward. If they’re not sure how much is missing, they assume a bit less is missing, since it’s better to wait than to guess at conversions.
It’s like waiting for receipts to arrive by mail. If you know only half of Friday’s receipts usually show up by Monday, there’s no need to worry on Monday morning.
Where the correction applies
To be clear: this correction is in place for Google. Bing isn’t covered yet.
6. Not spending money on things you can’t sell
The other Monday problem: sold-out bestsellers.
Keeping your feed in sync with your stock
Our platform keeps your product feed up to date, so ads stop pointing to products you can’t deliver. If your store runs on Shopify, stock changes come through as soon as Shopify reports them. Otherwise, the nightly update picks them up.
Why it matters for your budget
The goal isn’t just to avoid unhappy customers. Money spent on a sold-out product could be used elsewhere to drive real sales.
Curious how this would work for your account? Book a demo or start a free trial.
Limits to know before November
If your budgets haven’t changed much before, our algorithms haven’t learned how different amounts affect results. They need to test new levels in small steps, so improvements may take longer to appear.
It’s difficult for any system to calculate results when spending much more than before. Our algorithms are built to handle this carefully.
As mentioned, the conversion lag correction applies to Google, not Bing.
None of this makes Black Friday stress-free. But it does mean your budget is under control, even when everything else is hectic.
